Stake Simulator X-ray: Plinko, Keno, Mines and Dice Heatmaps

Every view compares a count with what the exact odds say it should be. Take one Keno number. Each draw takes 10 of 40 numbers, so any one number is drawn with a chance of 25%. Over 1,000 draws it should come up 250 times. Real counts spread around that figure, and the spread has a size: the standard deviation of a binomial count, the square root of draws × chance × (1 − chance), which here is 13.7. A number drawn 264 times sits one standard deviation (1σ) above expected; one drawn 223 times sits about 2σ below.

The board colours by that distance. Orange means more than expected and blue fewer. A count inside 1σ stays faint, past 1σ it gets a ring, and past 2σ the ring is solid. On a fair board about 32% of counts land past 1σ and about 4.5%, or 1 in 22, past 2σ. That is the yardstick for reading a board: a handful of rings is what fairness looks like.

On the demo seed, 1,000 Keno draws left the least drawn number at 220 and the most drawn at 281, against 250 each. 15 of the 40 numbers sat past 1σ and 2 past 2σ, close to the 13 and 1.8 chance alone predicts, and one number went 36 draws in a row without showing.

Where the odds change from bet to bet, X-ray sums them. Dice adds up the win chance of every roll you placed, so changing the target mid-session still gives one fair figure. Mines adds up the bomb chance of each round at its own bomb count, and the Picks view adds up the safe chance at the moment you clicked each tile. The spread is summed the same way, one variance per bet.