module – Typescript ESM tsconfig – which property(ies)/values read internally from tsconfig definitely tell if output is ESM?

I am writing a typescript API transform that processes source files during the emit phase. I have access in the transform to the internal value of the compileOptions, via program.getCompilerOptions().

I need to know if the output will be ‘CommonJS’, esm script, or something else.
I think I can tell from the module field, but I’m not certain.
Typescript defines –

  //   export enum ModuleKind {
  //     None = 0,
  //     CommonJS = 1,
  //     AMD = 2,
  //     UMD = 3,
  //     System = 4,
  //     ES2015 = 5,
  //     ES2020 = 6,
  //     ...
  //     ESNext = 99
  // }

and I think I can use this logic –

  const moduleKind: ts.ModuleKind | undefined =
    program.getCompilerOptions().module;
  if (!moduleKind) {
    throw new Error(
      `compilerOptions.module is undefined (should have default value)`
    );
  }
  if (
    moduleKind < ts.ModuleKind.ES2015 &&
    moduleKind !== ts.ModuleKind.CommonJS
  ) {
    // not esm and not commonjs
  }
  else if (moduleKind === ts.ModuleKind.CommonJS) {
    // commonjs
  } else {
    // esm
  }

However, on the typescript tsconfig man page for the module property
it lists in the sidebar these allowed values

none
commonjs
amd
umd
system
es6/es2015
es2020
es2022
esnext
node12
nodenext 

from which node12 and nodenext are almost certainly “commonjs”.
Which makes me think maybe some values >=es6/es2015 might be (and if not today, then someday) non-esm values. I’m looking for a definitive answer to this question,
because the manual doesn’t answer that question explicitly.